From Ari’s Desk: Making Sense of the Economy, Layoffs, and Hiring Right Now

As we close out the year, there’s a narrative out there that the economy is slowing, hiring is cautious, and leaders are choosing safety over growth. That’s partly true—but the data tells a more nuanced story, especially here in Canada.

The Bank of Canada just held its policy rate at 2.25%, citing a labour market and economy that have been more resilient than expected despite ongoing U.S. tariffs and global uncertainty. Canadian GDP grew an annualized 2.6% in the third quarter, and between September and November the country added roughly 181,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate easing to about 6.5%. Inflation also remains close to the Bank’s 2% target. These numbers suggest the Canadian economy isn’t sliding into recession—despite what everyday headlines might imply. Reuters

Canada isn’t alone in experiencing a complex labour picture. Across North America, hiring patterns have shifted. In the U.S., job openings remain elevated even as layoffs tick higher and job seekers express heightened pessimism about their prospects. AP News+1

Globally, leaders are cautious, and hiring decisions are being delayed as organizations navigate macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical instability, trade policy shocks, and technology disruption. A recent World Economic Forum survey showed many companies are not expecting major labor market changes in the next 12 months, signaling ongoing caution among chief people officers. HCAMAG

So what does this mean for high-growth tech, startups, and the talent markets we operate in?

This isn’t a market that’s shut down; it’s a cautiously focused one. The talent is out there. When companies are clear on their growth plans and expectations, the right leadership talent is available. We’re seeing more leaders on the market, and success comes down to hiring for values, culture, and team dynamics as much as experience.

For job seekers and executives in transition, that means a shift in playbook. You’ve probably felt the tightened response firsthand. My advice is clear: position yourself like a consultant for hire. Be specific about your unique skills. Write, loudly and clearly, about the problems you solve and the clients or companies that benefit most from your work. Show examples. Develop your own website. Polish a clear, compelling elevator pitch that answers the question: Why you? Why now? Your future clients want clarity and confidence. Don’t make them come looking for it. Be clear about it. Start networking with people who already know you and use those conversations to practice and fine-tune your pitch, so it clearly reflects your expertise.

I feel for those affected by recent layoffs, including in the agency world, after the Omnicom and IPG merger was announced a few weeks ago. The opportunity here is to turn transition into differentiation. With many reaching out, we are offering to host a free seminar in January called Career Transition... Put Your Best Foot Forward. Sign up, and we’ll send your invite to the video presentation and Q&A.

For founders and leaders hiring for tomorrow while managing today’s reality, I see a classic chicken-and-egg challenge play out again and again: Too often, companies hire a less experienced, lower-cost resource hoping they’ll grow into a Director or VP role—only to find themselves rebuilding later. Hiring senior, strategic leaders earlier can accelerate growth, avoid costly missteps, and build the foundation of your team in the right way from Day One.